Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6A 0x6adf…b216 crypto 1698 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$186 (-1%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%824W / 724L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day55.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days+$565
14 days+$1,231
30 days+$1,510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$1,775
weather 8% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 313 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 60% +5.7%
≤30d 1116 +11.8% +1.2% 61% 61% +4.2%
≤90d 1548 +7.3% -2.9% 53% 53% +0.5%
all 1548 +7.3% -2.9% 53% 53% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 53% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 53% -9.1%
15% -20.7% 53% -17.9%
20% -28.5% 49% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses824 / 724
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1548 / 1698
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1548 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 19? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 19? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 25? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 24? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 21? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 28 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 18 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 20? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 19? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 29? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 27? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 18? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 23? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 21? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 25? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 24? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 24? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 21? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 24? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 22? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 24? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 19? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 27? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 19 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 23? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 22? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 20? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 29? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 28? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 23? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 22? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$15 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records