Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ae0…7483 crypto 379 markets active 8h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,966 (-0%) realized −$4,880 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate66%238W / 123L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,749per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40,915now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$830
14 days−$763
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$48
world 32% −$13,962
politics 14% +$9,367
other 3% −$843
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% −$61
economics 0% −$14
sports 0% −$57
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 9% -10.3%
≤30d 165 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 207 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 6% -10.0%
all 361 -4.7% -13.8% 66% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 4% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -29.6% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.5% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$2,949) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$207 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$40,915
Realized−$4,880
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses238 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)361 / 379
History coverage631d
Avg bet$3,749
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25,722 $25,735 +$13 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $9,990 $9,995 +$5 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,120 $2,090 −$30 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,732 $1,733 +$1 (+0%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $530 $542 +$11 (+2%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $170 $167 −$3 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 68¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-9%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $87 $90 +$2 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $91 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 61¢ 82¢ $61 $82 +$21 (+34%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $140 $62 −$77 (-55%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $68 $52 −$16 (-23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 1¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1450%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,210 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $27,611 +$27 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $1,849 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $392 −$336 -86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $566 +$34 +6%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 +$8 +718%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $0 +$13 +4660%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +618%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -81%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$9 +900%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $0 $0 +78%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 +$9 +809%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.60 and $0.70 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 13? Jun 13 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $10 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,873 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,994 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $500 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,570 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,199 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,109 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,109 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $15,733 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,233 37h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $46 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 44h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 47h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,914.75 · official $40,914.77 (match) · 2611 history records