trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 59¢ | 94¢ | $87,943 | $138,984 | +$51,041 (+58%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 90¢ | $36,031 | $38,421 | +$2,390 (+7%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $37,777 | $37,759 | −$18 (-0%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $25,167 | $25,180 | +$13 (+0%) |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | Under | 54¢ | 55¢ | $21,800 | $21,800 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | No | 52¢ | 52¢ | $20,999 | $20,600 | −$400 (-2%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | No | 82¢ | 82¢ | $16,400 | $16,500 | +$100 (+1%) |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 | Under | 42¢ | 40¢ | $17,000 | $15,800 | −$1,200 (-7%) |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 50¢ | 99¢ | $7,285 | $14,388 | +$7,103 (+97%) |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Qatar | 43¢ | 42¢ | $13,361 | $13,005 | −$356 (-3%) |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score | No | 62¢ | 62¢ | $12,400 | $12,300 | −$100 (-1%) |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $9,355 | $9,369 | +$14 (+0%) |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 | Under | 58¢ | 57¢ | $7,548 | $7,483 | −$65 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $6,187 | $6,167 | −$20 (-0%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $4,833 | $4,915 | +$82 (+2%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $1,477 | $1,852 | +$375 (+25%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | No | 94¢ | 93¢ | $1,170 | $1,162 | −$8 (-1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $1,033 | $1,055 | +$22 (+2%) |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $478 | $483 | +$5 (+1%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $208 | $207 | −$0 (-0%) |
| China coup attempt before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | $68 | $71 | +$2 (+4%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $49 | $49 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | No | 50¢ | 28¢ | $68 | $37 | −$31 (-45%) |
| Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 | Under | 47¢ | 46¢ | $37 | $36 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 50¢ | 17¢ | $98 | $33 | −$65 (-66%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner | Jun 13 | $112 | −$112 | -100% |
| United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 | Jun 13 | $6,204 | +$200 | +3% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $15,800 | +$4,975 | +32% |
| United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score | Jun 13 | $5,336 | −$75 | -1% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score | Jun 12 | $2,070 | $0 | +0% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 | Jun 12 | $2,100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $9,970 | +$30 | +0% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $32,740 | +$6,761 | +21% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $17,907 | +$838 | +5% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 09 | $7,900 | +$100 | +1% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $5,400 | −$180 | -3% |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | Jun 08 | $6,016 | +$397 | +7% |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner | Jun 08 | $4,735 | +$765 | +16% |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Jun 07 | $8,351 | +$1,649 | +20% |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Jun 07 | $3,633 | +$1,467 | +40% |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner | Jun 07 | $446 | −$446 | -100% |
| Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Jun 07 | $65 | −$65 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | +108.0% | +88.2% | 65% | 35% | +2.4% |
| ≤30d | 17 | +108.0% | +88.2% | 65% | 35% | +2.4% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +108.0% | +88.2% | 65% | 35% | +2.4% |
| all | 17 | +108.0% | +88.2% | 65% | 35% | +2.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +88.2% | 35% | +2.4% |
| 10% | +70.2% | 18% | -7.4% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +53.8% | 12% | -16.4% |
| 20% | +38.7% | 6% | -24.6% |