Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6A 0x6ae3…6e27 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+10%) realized +$72 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$50
14 days+$98
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$18
sports 38% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +66.1% +50.3% 43% 43% +35.3%
≤30d 18 +19.5% +8.1% 44% 44% +9.9%
≤90d 18 +19.5% +8.1% 44% 44% +9.9%
all 18 +19.5% +8.1% 44% 44% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 44% +9.9%
10% -2.2% 44% -0.6%
15% -11.7% 44% -10.2%
20% -20.3% 44% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage17d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $150 $129 −$21 (-14%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$31 +101%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$34 +165%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $41 +$40 +99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $31 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 31h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 35h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 35h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $20 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $30 35h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $20 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 12d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $41 12d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $20 14d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $20 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 15d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 16d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.87 · official $158.87 (match) · 39 history records