Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6A 0x6ae4…0eb6 crypto 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$110 (+23%) realized +$101 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 98L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +13.4% +2.6% 11% 11% +11.0%
≤30d 110 +13.4% +2.6% 11% 11% +11.0%
≤90d 110 +13.4% +2.6% 11% 11% +11.0%
all 110 +13.4% +2.6% 11% 11% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 11% +11.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.2% 11% +0.4%
15% -16.2% 10% -9.3%
20% -24.4% 10% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$4 · ×10.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 98
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$29 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$59 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$58 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$46 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$57 +569%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $2.75 · 142 history records