Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6ae4…28cc crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,488 (+49%) realized +$2,488 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$245
7 days−$245
14 days+$2,736
30 days+$2,078
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$2,606
crypto 49% −$469
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.8% -36.5% 50% 50% -45.2%
≤30d 15 -12.2% -20.6% 53% 53% +31.6%
≤90d 19 -4.1% -13.2% 63% 53% +28.4%
all 19 -4.1% -13.2% 63% 53% +28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 53% +28.4%
10% -21.5% 47% +16.1%
15% -29.1% 37% +4.9%
20% -36.1% 32% -5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +42% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$226 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,488
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage52d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $205 +$80 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$27 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,741 +$2,981 +171%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $570 −$570 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 29 $366 −$366 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $221 +$147 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 29 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 29 $260 +$166 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 29 $201 +$60 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $305 +$195 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 03 $434 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 03 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 03 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 03 $31 +$23 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1,741 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 43¢ $61 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $366 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $221 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $205 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $260 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $201 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $85 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $509 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $305 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $434 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records