Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ae4…8c4d crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,084 (-27%) realized −$1,075 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%50W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$160
14 days+$130
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$592
sports 28% −$2
politics 11% −$146
weather 5% −$174
other 3% −$108
world 0% +$1
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +57.8% +42.8% 100% 100% +41.4%
≤30d 22 -10.0% -18.5% 45% 45% +16.2%
≤90d 92 -42.0% -47.5% 30% 26% -38.4%
all 156 -33.3% -39.6% 32% 29% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 29% -33.1%
10% -45.4% 24% -39.5%
15% -50.7% 21% -45.3%
20% -55.5% 17% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$1,075
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses50 / 106
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage93d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group B Game Hunters 26¢ 15¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $217 +$119 +55%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $67 +$40 +61%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $13 +$5 +39%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $4 −$1 -36%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $9 −$4 -43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$7 +56%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$20 -50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $14 +$18 +125%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 +$12 +281%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $6 −$1 -19%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$1 -12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 03 $12 +$10 +86%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? Apr 02 $23 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 2? Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 2? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Apr 02 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $39 +$7 +18%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 01 $4 +$5 +129%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins Apr 01 $7 +$5 +67%
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on March 31? Apr 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31? Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on March 31? Mar 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on March 31? Mar 31 $15 +$7 +45%
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves Mar 31 $20 +$15 +74%
Valorant: sleepers vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 30? Mar 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 30? Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31? Mar 31 $26 −$24 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch BUY Game Hunters 26¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 84¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 58¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL OG 62¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 43¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 49¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 24¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 54¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 43¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 15¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 30¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 41¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 45¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL OG 48¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 29¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 74¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 57¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 56¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 59¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 54¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 38¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL 9INE 99¢ $107 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 43¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 45¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 69¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 65¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 65¢ $15 11d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $18 11d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 86¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs SELL aimclub 32¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.39 · official $11.39 (match) · 529 history records