Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ae9…1ea4 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized +$29 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate68%73W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$17
14 days+$44
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 30% −$95
sports 20% −$46
other 18% +$114
world 17% −$113
finance 7% −$14
politics 4% +$6
tech 2% +$2
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 16% -6.2%
≤30d 103 +3.7% -6.2% 67% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 108 +3.5% -6.4% 68% 7% -9.9%
all 108 +3.5% -6.4% 68% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 7% -9.9%
10% -15.3% 6% -18.5%
15% -23.5% 6% -26.4%
20% -31.0% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses73 / 35
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)108 / 115
History coverage34d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 26? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 28 $51 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $98 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $8 +$43 +574%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? Jun 27 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $74 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $24 +$5 +20%
BNB Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$5 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$7 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $73 −$5 -7%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -44%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $14 +$5 +36%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -75%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$47 +1521%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 −$2 -16%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $19 +$18 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$23 +73%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $78 −$27 -35%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $17 +$12 +67%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $150 −$6 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$1 +2%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $65 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 96¢ $77 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 8¢ $2 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $51 23h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $98 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 84¢ $17 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 14¢ $8 39h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 45h
BNB Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 12¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $52 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 29¢ $14 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 28¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 29¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 14¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 15¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $51 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $22 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.81 · official $82.81 (match) · 231 history records