Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

6A 0x6aeb…12b2 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$7,520 (+19%) realized +$10,340 · open −$2,820

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%15W / 12L

Whale WR57%big bets

Drawdown76%max

Avg bet$1,409per market

Trades / day37.7pace

Fees−$632est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$745now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-3.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+6.5%	-3.7%	56%	56%	+16.5%
≤30d	27	+6.5%	-3.7%	56%	56%	+16.5%
≤90d	27	+6.5%	-3.7%	56%	56%	+16.5%
all	27	+6.5%	-3.7%	56%	56%	+16.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover37.7 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-3.7%	56%	+16.5%
10%	-12.9%	56%	+5.3%
15% ← realistic here	-21.3%	52%	-4.8%
20%	-29.0%	44%	-14.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,764) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +63% → late -46% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$1,278 vs −$784 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$745

Realized+$10,340

Unrealized−$2,820

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses15 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)57%

Est. fees paid−$632

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 28

History coverage4d

Avg bet$1,409

Trades / day37.7

Drawdown76%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	9z	41¢	8¢	$3,564	$745	−$2,820 (-79%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$1,508	+$2,488	+165%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$2,013	−$2,013	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$4,996	+$3,091	+62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$2,993	+$4,011	+134%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$49	−$49	-100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$51	−$51	-100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$174	−$174	-100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$858	−$83	-10%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$367	−$367	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$689	−$689	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 15	$788	−$788	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$1,090	−$1,090	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$2,265	−$2,265	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$11	−$11	-98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$3,734	−$1,832	-49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$4,625	+$1,857	+40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$884	+$1,114	+126%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$1,764	+$1,982	+112%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$705	+$411	+58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$525	+$974	+186%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$1,413	+$585	+41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$1,518	+$979	+64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$1,144	+$897	+78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$795	+$204	+26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$315	+$184	+59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$295	+$204	+69%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$305	+$194	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	61¢	$344	39m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	55¢	$557	41m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	49¢	$11	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	49¢	$10	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	49¢	$122	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	49¢	$249	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	48¢	$185	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	48¢	$5	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	48¢	$1	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	48¢	$34	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	48¢	$475	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	48¢	$5	43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	SELL 9z	100¢	$3,996	44m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	33¢	$93	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$42	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$635	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$516	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$38	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$1	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$5	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$0	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$32	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$41	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$182	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	BUY 9z	37¢	$1,508	2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$8,088	3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	61¢	$2,997	4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	61¢	$1,999	4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	63¢	$107	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $744.63 · official $744.63 (match) · 173 history records