Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6aee…e64c other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+25%) realized +$60 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$42
sports 11% +$20
crypto 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 36% 36% +21.4%
≤30d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 36% 36% +21.4%
≤90d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 36% 36% +21.4%
all 11 +4.0% -5.9% 36% 36% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 36% +21.4%
10% -14.9% 36% +9.8%
15% -23.1% 36% -0.9%
20% -30.7% 27% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$25 +242%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27 +$35 +132%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$19 +140%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $28 +$12 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $19 4h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 19h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.00 · official $77.00 (match) · 44 history records