Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

6A 0x6af5…db2d crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2 (+5%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate64%9W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day26.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-0.0%	-9.6%	64%	36%	-8.2%
≤30d	14	-0.0%	-9.6%	64%	36%	-8.2%
≤90d	14	-0.0%	-9.6%	64%	36%	-8.2%
all	14	-0.0%	-9.6%	64%	36%	-8.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-9.6%	36%	-8.2%
10% ← realistic here	-18.2%	29%	-17.0%
15%	-26.1%	29%	-25.0%
20%	-33.4%	14%	-32.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -11% → late +11% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses9 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)14 / 14

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day26.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 14 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$2	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 16	$3	$0	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 16	$6	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$1	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$1	-29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$1	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	SELL Down	82¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Down	24¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	SELL Up	89¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	SELL Up	82¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$5	5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	60¢	$1	14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	69¢	$1	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records