Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6A 0x6af5…06ad other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$195 (-34%) realized −$207 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$8
world 17% −$5
politics 17% $0
crypto 16% −$93
tech 14% −$81
culture 2% −$10
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-62.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -68.3% -71.3% 0% 0% -56.6%
all 7 -58.6% -62.5% 0% 0% -46.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.5% 0% -46.5%
10% -66.1% 0% -51.6%
15% -69.4% 0% -56.3%
20% -72.4% 0% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$33 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage138d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 47¢ 54¢ $88 $101 +$12 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 22 $95 −$93 -98%
Discord IPO before 2027? May 22 $99 −$5 -5%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026? Feb 16 $99 −$5 -5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 47¢ $90 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $95 31d
Discord IPO before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $94 31d
Discord IPO before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $99 72d
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 90d
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? BUY No 5¢ $10 107d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 45¢ $81 127d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $94 127d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $99 130d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 52¢ $99 130d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 52¢ $99 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.79 · official $100.79 (match) · 23 history records