Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6A 0x6afb…82a9 other 12 markets active 6d ago coverage 648d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$265 (-77%) realized −$281 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -88% what you keep after slip
Net edge-88%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$124
sports 15% −$50
culture 15% −$50
politics 11% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-87.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 9 -86.6% -87.9% 11% 11% -92.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -87.9% 11% -92.2%
10% -89.0% 0% -92.9%
15% -90.1% 0% -93.6%
20% -91.1% 0% -94.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -87% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$35 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

648d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage648d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+170%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+242%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Warriors vs. Hawks Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Dec 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spirit win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Dec 06 $90 −$90 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jun 16 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at debate? Sep 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Hannity town hall? Sep 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 6d
Warriors vs. Hawks BUY Warriors 26¢ $50 87d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 128d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY No 27¢ $50 183d
Will Spirit win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY Yes 24¢ $90 365d
Super Bowl LIX Winner BUY Chiefs 4¢ $20 492d
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at debate? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 644d
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Hannity town hall? BUY No 74¢ $24 651d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? BUY Yes 83¢ $22 654d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.08 · official $51.08 (match) · 18 history records