Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6afc…f7dd other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,394 (+4%) realized +$4,394 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate69%82W / 36L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$869per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$519est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$460
14 days+$503
30 days+$1,238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$336
sports 25% +$2,972
world 2% +$34
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -5.5% -14.5% 67% 11% -8.3%
≤30d 60 -2.8% -12.0% 65% 18% -7.5%
≤90d 118 -0.7% -10.2% 69% 21% -6.5%
all 118 -0.7% -10.2% 69% 21% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 21% -6.5%
10% -18.8% 10% -15.5%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 5% -23.6%
20% -33.8% 2% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$982) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$54 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,394
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses82 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$519
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage40d
Avg bet$869
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,203 +$22 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6,943 +$136 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $687 +$17 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $405 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,307 +$25 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,988 +$103 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $687 +$173 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16,164 −$266 -2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$69 -34%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,000 −$17 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,977 −$130 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $117 +$2 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,198 −$7 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $458 +$28 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $202 +$3 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,565 +$126 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $478 +$35 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $187 +$36 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $184 +$10 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,384 −$14 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,006 +$11 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,733 +$1 +0%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3,129 +$145 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,855 +$144 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $894 +$96 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $663 +$16 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $214 +$2 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,995 +$15 +1%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,029 −$3 -0%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $533 +$16 +3%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $200 +$5 +3%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $367 −$9 -2%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $262 +$2 +1%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +17%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $401 +$51 +13%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $183 −$14 -8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,111 −$7 -1%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $21 +$1 +5%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $907 +$24 +3%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $664 +$1,280 +193%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $200 −$58 -29%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,018 −$446 -44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,428 −$266 -8%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $21 −$8 -39%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $132 −$89 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $200 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $73 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $55 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $28 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $6 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $23 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $15 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 83¢ $57 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 83¢ $47 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 83¢ $83 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 11¢ $33 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 83¢ $13 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 80¢ $200 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 88¢ $111 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 88¢ $46 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 88¢ $44 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $202 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,745 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1522 history records