Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6afc…5d32 sports 1027 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,700 (-10%) realized −$5,683 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate76%778W / 246L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$416est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,059
other 11% −$286
crypto 8% −$467
weather 3% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.2% -12.4% 74% 50% -7.5%
≤30d 466 -12.5% -20.8% 63% 35% -12.7%
≤90d 1024 -3.6% -12.8% 76% 27% -12.4%
all 1024 -3.6% -12.8% 76% 27% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 27% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 17% -20.8%
15% -28.8% 11% -28.5%
20% -35.7% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$34 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$5,683
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses778 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$416
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1024 / 1027
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 79¢ 62¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Minnesota Lynx 84¢ 81¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $193 +$26 +13%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $40 +$3 +8%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $45 +$24 +54%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$17 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$6 +21%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $36 −$36 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$2 +10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $182 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $81 +$3 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $118 −$71 -60%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $73 +$9 +12%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $156 −$21 -14%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $171 +$8 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $60 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 +$38 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 +$37 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$79 +156%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $121 +$20 +16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 +$6 +9%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $74 +$18 +24%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $64 +$5 +8%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $31 +$5 +15%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $66 +$7 +10%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $71 +$22 +31%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $31 +$9 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $27 +$4 +14%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $91 +$22 +24%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $48 −$25 -52%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $21 +$3 +16%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $39 +$2 +6%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $34 +$5 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 84¢ $30 0m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 79¢ $60 1m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 99¢ $116 3m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 88¢ $54 5m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 95¢ $53 9m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 92¢ $50 16m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 88¢ $50 20m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 74¢ $20 34m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 90¢ $22 35m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $21 48m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 91¢ $21 49m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 83¢ $40 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 80¢ $30 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 99¢ $70 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $17 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $18 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $16 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $27 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $27 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 93¢ $25 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 99¢ $25 25h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 42¢ $6 27h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 63¢ $30 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 29h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Jeline Vandromme 100¢ $16 29h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 78¢ $12 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 97¢ $26 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.41 · official $83.41 (match) · 3500 history records