Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6b02…843c other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$26 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$74
world 30% −$1
politics 13% −$103
economics 7% +$8
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.4% -20.7% 80% 40% -2.8%
≤30d 7 -23.2% -30.5% 57% 29% -6.7%
≤90d 7 -23.2% -30.5% 57% 29% -6.7%
all 7 -23.2% -30.5% 57% 29% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 29% -6.7%
10% -37.1% 0% -15.6%
15% -43.2% 0% -23.8%
20% -48.8% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)7 / 22
History coverage12d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 46¢ 52¢ $62 $69 +$7 (+12%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 76¢ 94¢ $55 $68 +$13 (+24%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 69¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Will Linera launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 76¢ $49 $60 +$12 (+24%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 55¢ 76¢ $35 $49 +$14 (+40%)
Will Saturn launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 63¢ $36 $41 +$5 (+15%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 61¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+10%)
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 48¢ 86¢ $19 $34 +$15 (+79%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 50¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 58¢ 71¢ $22 $28 +$5 (+23%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 57¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 3¢ $114 $11 −$103 (-91%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Jun 26 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 25 $1 $0 +16%
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? Jun 25 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 25 $71 +$8 +12%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $58 1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $9 1h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 70¢ $15 5h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 71¢ $5 8h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 71¢ $5 8h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $11 24h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 26h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $9 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $3 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $30 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $9 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $44 27h
Will Linera launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $50 36h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 59¢ $12 36h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 57¢ $32 36h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $63 2d
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 48¢ $20 2d
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 56¢ $13 2d
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 55¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $23 2d
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 54¢ $23 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $15 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $48 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $37 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $11 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $3 2d
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.85 · official $583.95 (match) · 67 history records