Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6b03…f889
crypto · 49 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$33 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)42 / 49
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 7 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$23
14 days−$25
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -72%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -22%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 01 $3 $0 -5%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 01 $8 −$1 -7%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 10 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 09 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 09 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 09 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$27
other 23% −$6
politics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.8% -24.7% 45% 36% -33.3%
≤30d 27 -16.7% -24.7% 37% 30% -31.2%
≤90d 42 -24.5% -31.7% 33% 29% -32.9%
all 42 -24.5% -31.7% 33% 29% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 29% -32.9%
10% -38.2% 26% -39.3%
15% -44.2% 21% -45.2%
20% -49.7% 19% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.16 · official $15.16 (match) · 127 history records