Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b04…f792 sports 705 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,882 (+8%) realized +$6,885 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%453W / 244L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$825est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,254
7 days+$4,881
14 days+$6,898
30 days+$9,634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$5,077
other 10% +$3,112
crypto 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +28.0% +15.8% 73% 71% +15.1%
≤30d 360 +9.8% -0.6% 69% 68% +4.1%
≤90d 697 +0.6% -9.0% 65% 63% -0.5%
all 697 +0.6% -9.0% 65% 63% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 63% -0.5%
10% -17.7% 54% -10.0%
15% -25.6% 40% -18.7%
20% -32.9% 24% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$95 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$6,885
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses453 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$825
Open positions1
Markets (closed)697 / 705
History coverage73d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 697 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Sabalenka 71¢ 70¢ $230 $227 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $424 +$209 +49%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $296 +$147 +50%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $199 +$85 +43%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $214 +$58 +27%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $303 +$221 +73%
Canada leading at halftime? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $378 +$837 +222%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $199 +$78 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $199 −$196 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $202 +$96 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $442 −$436 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $138 +$101 +73%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp Jun 18 $91 +$41 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $357 −$352 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $299 +$259 +87%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $435 +$269 +62%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $239 +$197 +82%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $261 +$379 +145%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$353 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $263 −$260 -99%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $272 +$191 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $392 +$274 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $381 −$377 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $192 +$80 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $196 +$123 +63%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $274 +$325 +118%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $275 +$495 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $359 +$522 +145%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 +$158 +172%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $196 −$193 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $505 −$498 -99%
Set Handicap: Gibson (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 15 $201 −$198 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $130 −$128 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $152 +$128 +84%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $96 −$95 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $894 −$888 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $460 +$104 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $368 +$119 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $276 +$687 +249%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $253 +$150 +59%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$49 +32%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $239 −$235 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $88 +$48 +54%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $396 +$48 +12%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $318 +$426 +134%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $556 +$251 +45%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $494 +$160 +32%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $348 +$412 +118%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $310 +$434 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 71¢ $232 38m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $634 41m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $424 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $443 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $284 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $199 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 66¢ $296 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $273 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $524 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $303 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 78¢ $214 3h
Canada leading at halftime? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 30¢ $378 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $277 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 71¢ $199 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $199 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $298 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 67¢ $202 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $442 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $238 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $138 23h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp SELL Paul 100¢ $132 24h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp BUY Paul 68¢ $91 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $305 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $357 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 3¢ $8 33h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $704 33h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $435 34h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $437 34h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $239 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $639 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.76 · official $233.14 · 1415 history records