Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b06…3cf4 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$1
world 22% −$1
politics 18% $0
crypto 9% $0
economics 9% +$2
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -15.0% -23.1% 0% 0% -23.1%
≤30d 3 -6.0% -15.0% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 3 -6.0% -15.0% 0% 0% -11.2%
all 36 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage325d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $3 $0 -15%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $15 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $48 $0 -1%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 11 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $0 $0 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $62 +$2 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $63 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 29 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $2 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $3 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $47 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $48 24d
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? SELL No 97¢ $49 312d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $20 312d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 98¢ $20 312d
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? SELL No 97¢ $16 312d
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? BUY No 97¢ $64 312d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $61 312d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $9 312d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $9 312d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 98¢ $6 312d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 313d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 313d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 313d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 98¢ $6 313d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $61 313d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 313d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 313d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.07 · official $42.07 (match) · 88 history records