Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6B 0x6b07…df0f other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$20 (+9%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+60.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +76.8% +60.0% 67% 50% +1.0%
≤30d 6 +76.8% +60.0% 67% 50% +1.0%
≤90d 6 +76.8% +60.0% 67% 50% +1.0%
all 6 +76.8% +60.0% 67% 50% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +60.0% 50% +1.0%
10% +44.7% 33% -8.6%
15% +30.7% 33% -17.5%
20% +17.9% 17% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.57 per $1 lost it wins $14.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $119 +$7 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $119 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records