Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b07…53ba crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-11%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$3
crypto 46% $0
sports 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 64% -21.7%
≤30d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 64% -21.7%
≤90d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 64% -21.7%
all 14 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 64% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 64% -21.7%
10% -19.3% 43% -29.2%
15% -27.1% 36% -36.1%
20% -34.3% 21% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $0 $0 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 44h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $0 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.23 · official $4.21 (match) · 38 history records