Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6B 0x6b0b…f011 crypto 613 markets active 0h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,418 (-7%) realized −$1,240 · open −$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate70%413W / 181L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$556now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$12
14 days−$8
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$392
sports 26% −$222
world 21% −$1,364
other 3% −$58
finance 2% −$293
politics 1% −$121
culture 0% −$22
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +20.3% +8.8% 75% 44% -9.3%
≤30d 162 +17.3% +6.2% 73% 43% -10.8%
≤90d 397 +3.1% -6.7% 66% 43% -12.5%
all 594 +0.2% -9.4% 70% 35% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 35% -16.8%
10% -18.0% 23% -24.8%
15% -26.0% 20% -32.0%
20% -33.2% 17% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$556
Realized−$1,240
Unrealized−$178
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses413 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions19
Markets (closed)594 / 613
History coverage211d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET Down 72¢ 100¢ $165 $229 +$64 (+39%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 38¢ 42¢ $88 $95 +$7 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $146 $87 −$59 (-41%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $60 $64 +$5 (+8%)
EU dissolves before 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $5 $13 +$7 (+137%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 76¢ 70¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-39%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-57%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-99%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $88 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $232 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $264 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $191 −$87 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $224 +$68 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $201 −$95 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $88 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$14 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1AM ET Jun 29 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $79 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $84 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $138 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $555.95 · official $556.10 (match) · 3256 history records