Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b0c…d2ec other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$490 (-8%) realized −$481 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$656per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$1,469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$91
sports 11% −$606
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -20.0%
≤30d 8 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -20.0%
≤90d 8 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -20.0%
all 8 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.1% 25% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -52.1% 25% -27.6%
15% -56.8% 12% -34.6%
20% -61.0% 12% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$565 vs −$273 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,469
Realized−$481
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$656
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,478 $1,469 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,195 +$288 +24%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $186 −$182 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $580 +$842 +145%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $434 −$424 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $983 −$976 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $999 −$15 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $1,484 59m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $1,484 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $1,195 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $186 17h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 18h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,422 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $580 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $434 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $983 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $984 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $999 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,469.02 · official $1,469.02 (match) · 12 history records