Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6B 0x6b0e…0517 sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,788 (+9%) realized +$7,935 · open −$1,147
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%37W / 24L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,121per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$6,827now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$251
7 days−$284
14 days−$2,718
30 days+$1,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$828
sports 32% +$2,900
other 31% +$4,151
crypto 3% +$270
finance 1% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +7.4% -2.8% 56% 56% -12.0%
≤30d 39 +5.7% -4.4% 56% 56% -5.8%
≤90d 53 +16.7% +5.6% 62% 62% +2.5%
all 61 +13.7% +2.9% 61% 59% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 59% +1.0%
10% -7.0% 51% -8.6%
15% -16.0% 43% -17.5%
20% -24.2% 34% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,208) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$586 vs −$579 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$6,827
Realized+$7,935
Unrealized−$1,147
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses37 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1,121
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $3,843 $2,691 −$1,152 (-30%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $930 $1,095 +$165 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,080 $1,092 +$12 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $1,020 $1,005 −$15 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1,000 $918 −$82 (-8%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $100 $26 −$74 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,030 −$1,020 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $500 +$420 +84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,894 +$349 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$550 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $136 +$234 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $214 +$286 +134%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $975 −$960 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $256 −$43 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $310 −$308 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $1,066 −$1,050 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $111 +$89 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $34 −$25 -74%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $955 +$758 +79%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $245 −$240 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$202 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,010 +$474 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 08 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $2,021 +$1,056 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $1,021 +$449 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $1,057 −$1,044 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,012 +$476 +47%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $911 +$589 +65%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $1,003 +$924 +92%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $477 −$477 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 27 $508 −$508 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $508 +$492 +97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,309 +$1,691 +73%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $430 +$570 +133%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 23 $2,787 +$2,213 +79%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $3,078 −$1,242 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $170 −$110 -65%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $255 +$386 +152%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2,635 +$1,986 +75%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 16 $507 +$454 +90%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1,208 +$258 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $41 +$14 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $4,550 +$1,100 +24%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $101 +$419 +414%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 07 $3,440 −$271 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 07 $1,380 −$123 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $2,040 +$512 +25%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $4,266 +$1,343 +32%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,165 +$220 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $956 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1,040 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,030 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,000 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $920 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $207 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $500 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,561 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $975 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $136 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 2d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur SELL Adrian Mannarino 19¢ $212 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $214 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $310 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2,035 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1,066 3d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Adrian Mannarino 22¢ $256 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies $9 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 11¢ $34 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 86¢ $1,713 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $111 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $955 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $100 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,000 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $394 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $245 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,111 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $707 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 98¢ $1,484 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,826.93 · official $6,826.93 (match) · 301 history records