Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6b0e…44f6 crypto 1753 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,451 (-12%) realized −$1,451 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%1022W / 651L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$141
14 days+$393
30 days+$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$226
other 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 +5.0% -5.0% 71% 71% -4.2%
≤30d 1563 +0.2% -9.3% 65% 65% -4.8%
≤90d 1673 -6.1% -15.1% 61% 61% -9.0%
all 1673 -6.1% -15.1% 61% 61% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 61% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 50% -17.7%
15% -30.6% 33% -25.6%
20% -37.4% 20% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1,451
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1022 / 651
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1673 / 1753
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1673 Trades
no open positions (498 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$7 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$23 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.17 · official $8.17 (match) · 3500 history records