Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6b0e…e3ea
other · 154 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,762 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$612 · open −$83
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,036
Realized−$612
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses45 / 66
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions409
Markets (closed)111 / 154
History coverage6d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day568.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 409 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$457
7 days−$612
14 days−$612
30 days−$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $345 $692 +$347 (+101%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $412 $347 −$65 (-16%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $155 $325 +$170 (+109%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $59 $143 +$84 (+142%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $89 $105 +$16 (+17%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $111 $75 −$36 (-33%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 43¢ $81 $69 −$12 (-15%)
Will Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes 11¢ 33¢ $20 $63 +$43 (+210%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes 38¢ 35¢ $68 $62 −$5 (-8%)
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $42 $56 +$13 (+31%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $56 $51 −$5 (-10%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $11 $46 +$34 (+296%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 92¢ 97¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+5%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 47¢ 53¢ $33 $38 +$4 (+13%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 91¢ 85¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-6%)
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $82 $35 −$47 (-58%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $42 $34 −$7 (-18%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $33 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $34 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? No 11¢ 8¢ $41 $30 −$11 (-27%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 45¢ 31¢ $41 $28 −$13 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 12 $155 +$718 +463%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? Jun 12 $21 −$196 -945%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $14 +$61 +439%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 12 $13 +$86 +652%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $11 +$13 +120%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$23 -506%
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? Jun 12 $3 +$14 +469%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$55 -1684%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 12 $1 $0 -71%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 12 $1 −$23 -2403%
Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 12 $3 −$7 -247%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +269%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -190%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +179%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 12 $1 −$56 -7098%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 12 $1 −$1 -163%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will Robert Lowry be the Republican nominee for TX-21? Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -222%
Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $15 +$72 +470%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 12 $268 −$5 -2%
Will Ryan Tillman advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 12 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Israel strike 0 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$20 -200%
Will Drake have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$16 -107%
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +100%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 12 $21 +$169 +807%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +362%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $10 +$152 +1524%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +652%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 12 $0 −$2 -749%
James Comey in jail in 2025? Jun 12 $12 −$15 -128%
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Airbnb reach $142 in November? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Don Lemon charges dropped? Jun 12 $5 −$33 -664%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? Jun 12 $42 −$84 -200%
Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in March? Jun 12 $20 −$14 -69%
US strikes Nigeria by November 30? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of November? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.1m? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Paulo Portas win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $58 −$569 -974%
Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documen Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will Harry Styles have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal pres Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 66% +$5
other 24% −$51
politics 5% −$189
tech 3% −$14
sports 1% −$4
culture 0% −$4
crypto 0% +$84
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 29m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 33m
Databricks IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 35m
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 36m
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 38m
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Rippling IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 39m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 49m
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 51m
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 54m
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 16¢ $2 56m
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 15¢ $5 56m
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL No 2¢ $3 1h
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Celonis IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 35¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +63.1% +47.6% 41% 30% -5.3%
≤30d 111 +63.1% +47.6% 41% 30% -5.3%
≤90d 111 +63.1% +47.6% 41% 30% -5.3%
all 111 +63.1% +47.6% 41% 30% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover568.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.6% 30% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here +33.5% 23% -14.3%
15% +20.6% 20% -22.6%
20% +8.8% 20% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,035.67 · official $5,030.80 (match) · 3500 history records