Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b13…f125 world 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,287 (-8%) realized −$8,726 · open +$439
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate61%95W / 61L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$533per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5,432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$6,952
other 35% +$375
politics 6% −$17
sports 3% −$134
culture 2% +$237
economics 2% +$833
crypto 0% +$23
tech 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.4% -15.3% 73% 45% -19.4%
≤30d 56 +37.0% +23.9% 70% 36% -28.2%
≤90d 131 -0.8% -10.2% 56% 25% -20.5%
all 156 +1.6% -8.1% 61% 27% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 27% -15.5%
10% -16.9% 17% -23.6%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 12% -31.0%
20% -32.3% 10% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$196 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$5,432
Realized−$8,726
Unrealized+$439
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses95 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions29
Markets (closed)156 / 185
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$533
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 88¢ $1,565 $1,982 +$417 (+27%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $1,044 $1,047 +$3 (+0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $752 $749 −$3 (-0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $139 $378 +$239 (+172%)
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $275 $280 +$5 (+2%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 82¢ $142 $188 +$46 (+33%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $161 $144 −$16 (-10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $136 $139 +$3 (+2%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 38¢ 36¢ $83 $78 −$5 (-6%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 86¢ 68¢ $84 $66 −$18 (-21%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $67 $63 −$4 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 36¢ $83 $57 −$26 (-31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 42¢ 30¢ $43 $30 −$12 (-29%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $24 $27 +$4 (+15%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 93¢ 15¢ $66 $11 −$55 (-84%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 35¢ $43 $8 −$35 (-81%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+58%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 47¢ 30¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes $7 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 43¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-88%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes $6 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $70 +$12 +17%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $442 +$52 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $720 −$250 -35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $42 −$41 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $86 −$40 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $394 +$8 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $38 +$14 +38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $27 +$18 +68%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $72 +$12 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $116 +$1 +1%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 09 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $7 +$42 +565%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $11 +$38 +351%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $166 +$60 +36%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $292 +$3 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $360 +$87 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $6 +$2 +33%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $139 +$26 +19%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater tha Jun 01 $5 +$1 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $91 +$10 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $38 +$12 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $72 −$72 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $108 −$49 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,156 −$1,124 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $19 −$1 -6%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $41 −$5 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $74 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $277 −$276 -100%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $406 +$4 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $740 +$72 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1,431 −$1,264 -88%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $17 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $127 −$38 -30%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? May 26 $48 −$35 -74%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $9 $0 +1%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $485 +$40 +8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $68 −$6 -9%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $169 +$349 +207%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 22 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% May 22 $11 +$53 +482%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $82 +$98 +119%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $193 −$92 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m? May 21 $0 $0 +5%
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 21 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 98¢ $164 7m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No $4 47m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 96¢ $111 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 12¢ $11 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 76¢ $95 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 85¢ $106 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 15¢ $30 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 12¢ $23 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 12¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 52¢ $28 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 54¢ $68 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $92 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $92 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $92 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 50¢ $35 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $3 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 48¢ $32 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,432.27 · official $5,431.76 (match) · 3500 history records