Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b17…d51f crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$229 (+7%) realized +$244 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 35L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days−$24
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$137
world 3% −$35
other 2% −$31
politics 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +205.7% +176.6% 100% 100% +176.6%
≤30d 40 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 42% -1.9%
≤90d 69 -10.8% -19.3% 49% 41% -6.8%
all 69 -10.8% -19.3% 49% 41% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 41% -6.8%
10% -27.0% 32% -15.7%
15% -34.1% 25% -23.9%
20% -40.6% 17% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$18 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 35
Open positions12
Markets (closed)69 / 81
History coverage48d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $27 $17 −$10 (-37%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No 20¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 11 $3 +$6 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $169 −$25 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 29 $108 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 28 $27 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $37 −$24 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 28 $36 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $36 +$34 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 28 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 28 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 28 $31 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $72 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET May 28 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $42 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 28 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 28 $46 +$44 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 28 $163 +$153 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 28 $143 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 27 $42 −$26 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 27 $37 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 27 $67 +$22 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 27 $41 +$32 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 27 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 27 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 27 $78 +$51 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 27 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 27 $26 +$10 +40%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 21 $6 −$2 -30%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 17 $116 +$46 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 17 $55 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 17 $113 +$41 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $77 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 16 $124 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 16 $65 −$40 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 16 $29 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 20h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 30¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 12d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 8¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $27 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 17d
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete BUY No 20¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $21 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $66 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.55 · official $35.55 (match) · 465 history records