Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6b18…b947
sports · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$21 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$147
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage87d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 7 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 48¢ 88¢ $43 $79 +$36 (+84%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No 90¢ 99¢ $22 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 14¢ 11¢ $22 $16 −$5 (-24%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? No 75¢ 72¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 25 or more points? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 9? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Big 12 conference? Yes 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 50¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 7? No 13¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Under 26¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $11 +$11 +107%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Bi Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 35% +$37
sports 20% −$6
world 15% +$2
politics 15% −$5
other 12% −$1
weather 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 48m
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 25 or more p BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 26h
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 26h
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 26h
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $3 45h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 46h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $22 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 26¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes $1 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $22 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Kia Tigers 48¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 13¢ $6 5d
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte BUY No 14¢ $22 11d
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Bi BUY Yes 27¢ $1 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -51.4% -56.0% 17% 17% -40.1%
≤30d 6 -51.4% -56.0% 17% 17% -40.1%
≤90d 7 -58.4% -62.3% 14% 14% -42.3%
all 7 -58.4% -62.3% 14% 14% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.3% 14% -42.3%
10% -65.9% 14% -47.9%
15% -69.2% 14% -52.9%
20% -72.2% 14% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.12 · official $147.13 (match) · 29 history records