Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b19…6759 sports 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-1%) realized −$29 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%75W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$74
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$158
sports 36% +$61
world 11% +$12
crypto 6% −$59
politics 3% −$93
weather 2% −$17
economics 2% +$4
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.6% -39.1% 29% 29% -20.2%
≤30d 41 +17.4% +6.2% 37% 37% -16.6%
≤90d 195 -17.6% -25.4% 32% 31% -21.5%
all 216 -12.4% -20.8% 35% 31% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 31% -12.9%
10% -28.3% 30% -21.2%
15% -35.3% 25% -28.8%
20% -41.6% 23% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses75 / 141
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions29
Markets (closed)216 / 245
History coverage238d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 75¢ 74¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $8 $18 +$11 (+140%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+32%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 56¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-82%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-96%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 26 $23 −$21 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 25 $14 +$26 +185%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $25 +$8 +34%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$5 -55%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +68%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 19 $16 +$3 +18%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 +$21 +635%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $6 +$28 +455%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$16 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 +$24 +152%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 16 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $229 −$61 -26%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $29 −$14 -48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $22 +$10 +48%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $65 −$1 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $15 +$35 +236%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$37 +441%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $11 +$6 +54%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 05 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $12 −$11 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $28 −$13 -47%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$35 +35%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 01 $42 −$22 -52%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2 $0 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $94 −$53 -56%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $29 +$21 +70%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $8 −$8 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $19 −$7 -35%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$10 +109%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 29 $31 +$8 +26%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $20 −$6 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $6 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 75¢ $23 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $78 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 82¢ $82 5d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 9d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 9d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 9d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 9d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 9d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 29¢ $30 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.53 · official $210.56 (match) · 709 history records