Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b1b…a675 world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-1%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%21W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$16
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$24
sports 21% $0
other 19% +$6
economics 11% $0
politics 7% −$1
finance 5% −$74
tech 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 27 +1.8% -7.9% 41% 4% -10.3%
≤90d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 35% 3% -11.1%
all 65 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 2% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -10.8%
10% -18.3% 2% -19.4%
15% -26.2% 2% -27.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses21 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage323d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $77 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $273 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $77 −$3 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $220 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $166 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $154 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $103 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $184 −$14 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $79 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1 +$1 +50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $164 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $158 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $87 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $96 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $78 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $87 −$10 -11%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $361 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 02 $127 −$77 -60%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $632 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $575 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $580 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $572 +$2 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 03 $3 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $84 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $16 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $49 19h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $35 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $43 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $77 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $19 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $61 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $44 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $42 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $63 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $77 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.33 · official $84.33 (match) · 270 history records