Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6B 0x6b1c…236c other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$117 (+56%) realized +$118 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip

Net edge+71%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+77.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+96.7%	+77.9%	100%	100%	+86.8%
≤30d	3	+96.7%	+77.9%	100%	100%	+86.8%
≤90d	3	+96.7%	+77.9%	100%	100%	+86.8%
all	3	+96.7%	+77.9%	100%	100%	+86.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+77.9%	100%	+86.8%
10%	+60.9%	100%	+68.9%
15%	+45.4%	100%	+52.6%
20%	+31.1%	100%	+37.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +106% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +97% · $-wt +106% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$39 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$87

Realized+$118

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)3 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	60¢	60¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$23	$23	−$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	33¢	32¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$64	+$81	+126%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	+$14	+94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$29	+$21	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	66¢	$5	53m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	33¢	$5	53m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$13	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$30	2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	51¢	$9	2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$29	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$35	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$29	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.82 · official $86.82 (match) · 19 history records