Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6B 0x6b1e…65c1 sports 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32,872 (+8%) realized +$32,936 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%155W / 151L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$1,286per market
Trades / day71.1pace
Fees−$5,927est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,484
7 days+$24,966
14 days+$11,902
30 days+$24,820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$37,789
other 6% −$4,074
crypto 0% +$3,264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +26.1% +14.1% 57% 54% +9.0%
≤30d 228 +10.9% +0.4% 50% 47% -2.2%
≤90d 306 +9.4% -1.1% 51% 48% -1.2%
all 306 +9.4% -1.1% 51% 48% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 48% -1.2%
10% -10.5% 46% -10.6%
15% ← realistic here -19.2% 43% -19.3%
20% -27.1% 41% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,617) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,337 vs −$1,127 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$32,936
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses155 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$5,927
Open positions6
Markets (closed)306 / 312
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$1,286
Trades / day71.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 40¢ $71 $40 −$30 (-43%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4,410 +$739 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,013 +$335 +17%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,056 +$1,024 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $450 −$449 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $625 −$625 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2,784 +$2,016 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,819 −$2,819 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,378 +$230 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,275 −$2,275 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,513 −$1,513 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $803 +$717 +89%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,694 +$5,080 +138%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $979 −$977 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $436 −$436 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $814 −$814 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $888 −$888 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,649 −$1,649 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,249 −$1,249 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1,181 −$1,181 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,651 −$2,646 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 +$7 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,188 +$1,512 +127%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $580 +$1,077 +186%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $984 +$1,066 +108%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1,271 +$999 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $850 +$590 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $565 +$1,005 +178%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $765 +$535 +70%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,239 +$577 +26%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,830 +$530 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,428 +$1,547 +108%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $4,826 −$4,824 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5,876 +$10,446 +178%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $52 +$120 +233%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,042 +$2,097 +201%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $489 +$1,548 +317%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $289 −$289 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $941 −$941 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $436 −$436 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $480 −$480 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $720 −$720 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $864 −$864 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $899 −$899 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $1,586 −$1,586 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 15 $1,129 −$1,129 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $715 −$715 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,303 −$1,303 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2,939 −$2,939 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 75¢ $1,126 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 75¢ $802 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 75¢ $4 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 75¢ $416 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 28¢ $123 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $210 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $1,021 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $267 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $119 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $417 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $227 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $575 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $170 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $42 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.63 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records