Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b1f…3fd0 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$973 (-16%) realized +$822 · open −$1,795
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$162
14 days−$162
30 days+$705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$886
tech 1% −$70
culture 1% −$5
other 0% −$20
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -29.6% -36.3% 25% 17% -44.3%
≤30d 30 +43.9% +30.2% 40% 30% +9.0%
≤90d 37 +41.6% +28.1% 51% 43% +9.5%
all 37 +41.6% +28.1% 51% 43% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.1% 43% +9.5%
10% +15.9% 35% -0.9%
15% +4.7% 22% -10.5%
20% -5.6% 16% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +121% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$20 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized+$822
Unrealized−$1,795
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage61d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $2,191 $401 −$1,790 (-82%)
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 −$24 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $200 −$16 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $27 +$9 +34%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -29%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -29%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $899 +$230 +26%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? May 28 $16 −$1 -8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $15 −$6 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $150 −$133 -89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,424 +$425 +30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $5 $0 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $20 +$60 +300%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $10 +$90 +900%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $20 +$80 +400%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 26 $40 +$63 +157%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $20 +$98 +488%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Major US official out by April 30? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $15 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $350 −$2 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 15 $135 +$37 +27%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 15 $10 +$2 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $20 +$4 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $75 +$25 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 28 $150 +$27 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $10 +$6 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $427 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $588 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $397 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $12 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $122 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $185 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $123 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $50 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $327 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $41 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $200 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $36 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL No 95¢ $36 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 71¢ $27 6d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 6d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 6d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,034 17d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 17d
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.90 · official $402.90 (match) · 96 history records