Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6B 0x6b1f…d9c3 sports 1398 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,239 (+6%) realized +$1,976 · open +$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate80%1111W / 271L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,977now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$239
14 days−$21
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$182
other 28% +$2,706
crypto 7% −$165
finance 7% +$34
tech 3% +$166
world 3% −$184
economics 0% −$13
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -17.2% -25.1% 70% 18% -16.6%
≤30d 167 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 45% -9.5%
≤90d 1100 -1.7% -11.1% 80% 55% -10.8%
all 1382 -2.7% -11.9% 80% 50% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 50% -3.3%
10% -20.4% 16% -12.5%
15% -28.1% 4% -21.0%
20% -35.1% 2% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$1,977
Realized+$1,976
Unrealized+$263
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1111 / 271
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1382 / 1398
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? No 34¢ 82¢ $235 $574 +$339 (+144%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 91¢ 86¢ $223 $210 −$13 (-6%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 92¢ $134 $185 +$51 (+38%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 90¢ $160 $179 +$19 (+12%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 72¢ $138 $144 +$6 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 70¢ 46¢ $210 $136 −$74 (-35%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 57¢ $142 $115 −$27 (-19%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Sweden 95¢ 94¢ $95 $94 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 88¢ 88¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 58¢ $65 $58 −$6 (-10%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 80¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $25 $12 −$14 (-54%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 70¢ 17¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-76%)
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 38¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $19 $0 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 19 $81 +$9 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $184 −$184 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $94 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $85 +$15 +17%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $207 +$21 +10%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $174 +$16 +9%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $116 −$1 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -49%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $216 +$5 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $86 +$12 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 15 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $280 +$11 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $47 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $41 +$7 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $43 +$15 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $196 +$4 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $18 +$2 +9%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $646 +$136 +21%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $174 +$23 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Hapoel Holon BC vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $28 +$2 +7%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $96 +$4 +5%
Spread: Peru (-1.5) Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $46 +$4 +8%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $9 +$1 +17%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $19 +$1 +7%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $7 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $55 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $95 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $30 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $91 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 26h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $90 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 96¢ $96 44h
Will Haiti reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $19 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 83¢ $8 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 83¢ $33 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $88 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $80 2d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 94¢ $94 2d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 2d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 2d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 2d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 2d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $66 2d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Croatia 96¢ $36 2d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Croatia 96¢ $61 2d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Croatia 95¢ $0 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 98¢ $27 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 90¢ $180 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $190 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 98¢ $98 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 58¢ $115 2d
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $224 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 85¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,976.54 · official $1,976.91 (match) · 3500 history records