Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b20…f0e5 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 23% −$2
crypto 8% +$1
economics 7% $0
culture 5% −$3
politics 3% $0
finance 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +0.7% -8.9% 19% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 16 +0.7% -8.9% 19% 6% -10.0%
all 44 -1.5% -10.9% 32% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -10.1%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage308d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $76 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $19 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $69 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Dec 04 $5 −$4 -79%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $1 $0 -19%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 27 $70 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $47 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 27 $4 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 26 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 25 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 25 $41 +$1 +2%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $43 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $41 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $41 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $11 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $20 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $20 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $16 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $22 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $33 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $7 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $40 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $37 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $38 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.00 · official $37.00 (match) · 133 history records