Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b21…2ce5 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$2
politics 22% $0
world 13% $0
tech 13% −$2
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 25 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 8% -9.6%
all 25 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 8% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -28.4% 8% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$697) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)25 / 31
History coverage88d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on April 21? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 60-61°F on April 21? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on April 21? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 21? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $755 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $758 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $766 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $697 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Mar 20 $497 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Mar 20 $778 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 20 $745 −$2 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $775 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 19? Mar 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 19? Mar 20 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$265 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$380 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at >$1,080 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 30d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $1 53d
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on April 21? BUY Up 100¢ $1 54d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on April 21? BUY No 99¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 60-61°F on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $755 86d
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $755 86d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $515 86d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $243 86d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $144 86d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $613 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 86d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $766 86d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $220 86d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $546 86d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $688 86d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $9 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.42 · official $7.42 (match) · 66 history records