Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b22…74ec world 325 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,736 (-6%) realized −$1,643 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%183W / 137L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days+$278
14 days+$912
30 days+$935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$2,133
weather 17% +$119
other 8% −$157
politics 2% +$4
crypto 2% +$21
finance 1% +$33
sports 0% +$215
tech 0% +$13
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 33% -3.5%
≤30d 80 +7.6% -2.6% 50% 41% -0.6%
≤90d 320 +10.1% -0.4% 57% 51% -15.4%
all 320 +10.1% -0.4% 57% 51% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 51% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 46% -23.5%
15% -18.6% 25% -30.9%
20% -26.6% 15% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$43 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$1,643
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses183 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)320 / 325
History coverage79d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 68¢ $102 $127 +$24 (+24%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 20¢ 9¢ $37 $17 −$20 (-55%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 27¢ 3¢ $74 $8 −$66 (-90%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $36 $6 −$30 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 21 $131 −$78 -60%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $104 +$20 +19%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $261 −$68 -26%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 20 $307 −$10 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $139 +$7 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $112 +$141 +126%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $373 −$78 -21%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $428 −$31 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $318 −$22 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $52 +$4 +8%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $69 −$25 -36%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $195 +$175 +90%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $161 −$35 -22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $63 −$35 -56%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$3 -19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $35 −$5 -15%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 16 $30 −$12 -41%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $124 −$13 -11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $704 +$200 +28%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $79 −$57 -73%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $105 +$136 +130%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $132 +$34 +26%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $56 +$23 +40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $429 +$2 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $27 −$14 -50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $81 +$151 +188%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $161 +$181 +113%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$17 +78%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $96 +$4 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $37 −$16 -44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $24 +$16 +64%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $23 +$26 +113%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $52 −$12 -23%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $85 +$14 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $89 −$18 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $246 +$130 +53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $40 −$3 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $103 −$15 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $44 +$110 +252%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $20 +$72 +363%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $52 +$16 +31%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $367 −$162 -44%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 04 $55 +$13 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $19 −$5 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 28m
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 BUY Yes 20¢ $37 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $60 2h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $16 15h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $135 16h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $58 16h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $261 16h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $34 17h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 63¢ $45 19h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 65¢ $6 21h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 55¢ $0 21h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 55¢ $0 21h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 55¢ $0 21h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 55¢ $14 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $16 22h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 70¢ $18 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $14 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $29 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $64 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $32 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $40 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $253 27h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 82¢ $19 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 43h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $163 43h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $2 43h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $89 44h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $37 47h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $91 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.45 · official $212.45 (match) · 2422 history records