Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b23…331c sports 358 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-3%) realized −$37 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%205W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$7
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$111
other 3% −$11
crypto 1% −$2
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +3.7% -6.2% 78% 71% -8.9%
≤30d 355 -3.0% -12.3% 58% 52% -13.5%
≤90d 355 -3.0% -12.3% 58% 52% -13.5%
all 355 -3.0% -12.3% 58% 52% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 52% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 35% -21.8%
15% -28.3% 14% -29.3%
20% -35.3% 3% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses205 / 150
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)355 / 358
History coverage12d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner PlayTime 89¢ 100¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+12%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 68¢ 24¢ $24 $9 −$15 (-64%)
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Pigeons 73¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $31 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $11 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$7 +22%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 +$4 +42%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $12 +$1 +11%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $12 +$4 +34%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $9 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $13 +$2 +19%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $11 +$2 +23%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $12 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$1 +7%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $7 +$1 +11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 +$1 +17%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$2 +62%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$2 +29%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 89¢ $33 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 68¢ $24 1h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 73¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 91¢ $31 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 75¢ $29 9h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 97¢ $22 10h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 97¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 97¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 79¢ $30 10h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 91¢ $13 11h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 84¢ $12 13h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 70¢ $9 14h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 84¢ $11 14h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $12 15h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 90¢ $12 18h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 78¢ $10 24h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 77¢ $9 24h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 79¢ $11 28h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 98¢ $15 30h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $12 30h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 82¢ $13 30h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 74¢ $13 32h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 74¢ $9 32h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 72¢ $11 34h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 79¢ $11 35h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 66¢ $9 35h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 76¢ $10 36h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 89¢ $12 36h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 81¢ $11 38h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 94¢ $12 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.40 · official $45.40 (match) · 737 history records