Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b23…0c9c world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$12
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$11
world 34% −$8
other 12% +$3
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 25% -23.1%
≤30d 25 +78.3% +61.3% 44% 12% -10.7%
≤90d 41 +46.4% +32.4% 49% 10% -9.8%
all 52 +31.2% +18.7% 44% 13% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 13% -10.1%
10% +7.3% 10% -18.7%
15% -3.0% 8% -26.6%
20% -12.6% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage532d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $38 −$13 -34%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $32 +$4 +13%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $81 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $81 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -34%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $108 +$5 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $42 −$5 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $73 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $43 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $8 −$1 -9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $223 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $224 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $488 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $223 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $222 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $440 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Cornell vs. Harvard Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
San Diego vs. Pepperdine Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Nebraska Omaha vs. San Diego State Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Western Michigan vs. Akron Feb 12 $7 +$9 +144%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 05 $1 $0 -49%
Will Benfica beat Juventus? Feb 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump's inaugural address be 8-10 minutes? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona beat Atalanta? Feb 02 $4 +$6 +122%
Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1? Jan 21 $4 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $20 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $15 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $22 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $26 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $42 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records