Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6b25…d90d
sports · 121 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
−$28 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$108 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$360
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses77 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions4
Markets (closed)117 / 121
History coverage223d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 4 History 117 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days−$623
14 days−$223
30 days−$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 88¢ $369 $347 −$22 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Lynn Vision 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 3? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 Under 83¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $162 +$34 +21%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $261 +$25 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $447 +$17 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $211 +$33 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $195 +$21 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $174 +$21 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $150 +$9 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $146 +$15 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $102 −$6 -6%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,086 +$68 +6%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $300 +$9 +3%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $200 +$17 +8%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $501 +$26 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +18%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $902 +$52 +6%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,303 +$47 +4%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $402 +$35 +9%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $501 +$32 +6%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $542 −$144 -27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $111 −$8 -7%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$20 +20%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $802 +$46 +6%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $100 +$12 +12%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -15%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $100 −$31 -31%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $901 +$23 +3%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1,002 +$27 +3%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $704 +$140 +20%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $502 +$38 +8%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $602 +$84 +14%
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 05 $10 −$4 -40%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $50 −$8 -15%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -6%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $200 +$15 +7%
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $100 +$10 +10%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $100 +$16 +16%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $50 +$12 +24%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $602 +$51 +8%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $50 +$8 +17%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $100 +$11 +11%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $50 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% −$213
politics 6% +$52
other 5% +$52
crypto 2% −$97
tech 0% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $370 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $11 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $162 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $10 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $285 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $261 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $266 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $246 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $211 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $198 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $201 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 28h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $195 47h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $194 47h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $174 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $159 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $150 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $161 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $146 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $96 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 5d
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,001 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,154 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $581 5d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $309 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.2% -5.7% 81% 33% -18.9%
≤30d 95 +4.8% -5.2% 61% 36% -12.9%
≤90d 106 +9.3% -1.1% 63% 39% -12.5%
all 117 +18.5% +7.2% 66% 43% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 43% -10.1%
10% -3.0% 26% -18.7%
15% -12.4% 18% -26.6%
20% -21.0% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.40 · official $360.40 (match) · 276 history records