Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6B 0x6b26…8c32 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$887 (+25%) realized +$887 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 39L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$674
7 days+$1,043
14 days+$1,013
30 days+$1,023
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$1,341
other 13% −$436
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +45.5% +31.6% 33% 33% +37.8%
≤30d 34 +23.3% +11.6% 35% 35% +28.0%
≤90d 57 +3.6% -6.3% 32% 32% +18.8%
all 57 +3.6% -6.3% 32% 32% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 32% +18.8%
10% -15.2% 32% +7.5%
15% -23.4% 32% -2.9%
20% -30.9% 32% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$37 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$887
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 39
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage38d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $52 −$51 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $767 +$459 +60%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $105 −$75 -72%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $58 −$57 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $366 −$88 -24%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $314 +$622 +198%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $29 −$8 -26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $73 −$71 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$22 -83%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $37 +$49 +134%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $44 −$7 -17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $70 −$68 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $292 −$288 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $39 +$22 +55%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $51 +$117 +229%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $51 +$586 +1141%
Katie Boulter vs. Donna Vekic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $30 +$86 +289%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $63 −$32 -51%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $41 +$29 +70%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $12 +$23 +190%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$13 +123%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $46 +$95 +209%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $44 −$43 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $48 −$47 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $50 +$46 +92%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury May 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 22 $44 +$51 +116%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $9 +$46 +496%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 19 $32 +$40 +123%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: GAM Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Season May 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $21 −$21 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $24 −$24 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 17 $25 +$44 +180%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $39 −$33 -85%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $27 −$4 -15%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $10 +$13 +134%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner May 16 $7 −$7 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $18 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $34 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $462 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $47 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $156 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 54¢ $253 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $511 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $34 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $71 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $105 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $307 4h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 54¢ $58 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $196 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $301 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 14¢ $21 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $39 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $39 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $109 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $22 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 47¢ $163 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $635 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $50 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records