Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6B 0x6b28…37e6 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$896 (-21%) realized −$706 · open −$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$542per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$414
14 days−$414
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$47
crypto 15% −$650
finance 14% −$607
world 11% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.1% -5.8% 60% 60% -24.3%
≤30d 5 +4.1% -5.8% 60% 60% -24.3%
≤90d 7 -8.0% -16.8% 57% 57% -32.0%
all 7 -8.0% -16.8% 57% 57% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 57% -32.0%
10% -24.8% 57% -38.5%
15% -32.0% 43% -44.5%
20% -38.7% 29% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$656 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized−$706
Unrealized−$190
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage84d
Avg bet$542
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $660 $470 −$190 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $725 −$712 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $660 −$650 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $629 +$688 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $439 +$191 +44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 06 $614 −$607 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $498 +$116 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $671 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $725 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $660 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $629 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $439 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY Yes 73¢ $614 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $614 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 81¢ $498 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.81 · official $469.97 (match) · 12 history records