Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6B 0x6b2f…42cc crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$338 (-4%) realized −$352 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days−$343
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$6
other 34% −$4
sports 5% −$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -61.6% -65.3% 21% 7% -8.8%
≤30d 29 -33.1% -39.5% 41% 3% -13.3%
≤90d 29 -33.1% -39.5% 41% 3% -13.3%
all 29 -33.1% -39.5% 41% 3% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 3% -13.3%
10% -45.3% 3% -21.6%
15% -50.6% 3% -29.1%
20% -55.4% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$352
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage22d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Under 53¢ 100¢ $16 $30 +$14 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $36 +$14 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $465 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $465 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $465 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $358 −$355 -99%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $531 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $500 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $570 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $513 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $526 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $450 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $171 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $16 58m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 54¢ $23 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $36 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $465 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $465 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $299 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $299 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $340 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $465 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 71¢ $358 12d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $530 12d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $531 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $535 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 63 history records