Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b34…fb56 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$460 (+6%) realized +$394 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days−$50
14 days+$265
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$516
sports 28% +$45
crypto 14% −$48
world 1% −$102
tech 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -5.2% -14.3% 37% 37% -8.7%
≤30d 35 +2.5% -7.3% 43% 43% -4.4%
≤90d 35 +2.5% -7.3% 43% 43% -4.4%
all 35 +2.5% -7.3% 43% 43% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 43% -4.4%
10% -16.2% 40% -13.6%
15% -24.3% 40% -21.9%
20% -31.7% 29% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$89 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$729
Realized+$394
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage21d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $500 $562 +$63 (+13%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $162 $166 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$182 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $123 −$101 -82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$38 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 +$63 +46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $81 −$21 -25%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$75 +307%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$243 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 −$192 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,442 +$237 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$81 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $121 −$41 -34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,155 −$29 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $92 −$14 -15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $103 +$257 +250%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $314 −$310 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 +$148 +73%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 +$47 +46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $203 +$99 +49%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $284 +$216 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $142 +$142 +100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $514 −$215 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $164 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $514 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $485 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Morocco win o BUY 15¢ $193 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $33 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 18¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 10¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $122 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $97 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $101 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 57¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 31¢ $61 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $81 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $103 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $195 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $107 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,495 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $83 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $728.75 · official $728.75 (match) · 87 history records