Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b38…c5de sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$148 (-1%) realized −$147 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate64%23W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$60
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 18% −$564
economics 18% +$177
world 13% +$153
crypto 13% +$67
sports 12% −$251
politics 11% +$139
finance 8% +$54
tech 7% +$68
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 14 -40.9% -46.5% 36% 29% -24.8%
all 36 -23.6% -30.9% 64% 17% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 17% -10.3%
10% -37.5% 14% -18.9%
15% -43.5% 11% -26.7%
20% -49.1% 11% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,105) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$109 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses23 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage234d
Avg bet$491
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 58¢ 57¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $71 −$70 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 25 $106 −$104 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $105 −$103 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 14 $112 −$111 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $126 −$124 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 06 $128 +$110 +86%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 28 $115 +$117 +101%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski Apr 20 $108 −$60 -55%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 20 $149 +$123 +83%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 12 $107 −$105 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 04 $120 −$118 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Apr 04 $14 +$7 +52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 04 $1,372 +$54 +4%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 16 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $1,273 +$126 +10%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 07 $1,212 +$68 +6%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $1,127 +$85 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 11 $1,100 +$27 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $1,049 +$51 +5%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 07 $355 −$355 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 07 $1,303 +$53 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $1,243 +$108 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 05 $1,190 +$53 +4%
Jets vs. Patriots Nov 22 $1,106 +$83 +8%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 14 $1,022 +$84 +8%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $927 +$63 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $183 −$183 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 31? Nov 01 $1,105 +$13 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $48 +$1 +1%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $79 +$11 +14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $949 +$17 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $108 1h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $61 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $71 16d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $106 26d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $105 30d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 52¢ $112 37d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $126 45d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Carlos Prates 53¢ $128 53d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 49¢ $115 57d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 38¢ $2 60d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 38¢ $22 60d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 38¢ $20 60d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 38¢ $4 60d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 37¢ $105 61d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 37¢ $3 61d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $149 65d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $107 69d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 64¢ $120 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $1,372 93d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $14 95d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 95d
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 95d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 79¢ $5 97d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 91¢ $894 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 91¢ $118 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 91¢ $121 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 91¢ $140 104d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,212 117d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY No 93¢ $642 129d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY No 93¢ $485 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.16 · official $106.16 (match) · 77 history records