Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6B 0x6b3a…2841 sports 923 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,611 (+13%) realized +$20,432 · open −$821
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%452W / 393L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Fees−$1,115est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$25,754now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$5,187
other 26% −$1,583
world 10% +$93
finance 2% +$470
crypto 2% +$296
politics 1% +$246
economics 1% +$10
culture 0% +$15
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -48.6% -53.5% 25% 23% -40.2%
≤30d 506 -1.6% -11.0% 49% 39% -6.2%
≤90d 845 -1.7% -11.0% 53% 40% -5.8%
all 845 -1.7% -11.0% 53% 40% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 40% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 35% -14.8%
15% -27.3% 31% -23.0%
20% -34.4% 27% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$112 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$25,754
Realized+$20,432
Unrealized−$821
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses452 / 393
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1,115
Open positions135
Markets (closed)845 / 923
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$164
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 135 History 845 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,869 $1,927 +$58 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $1,483 $1,490 +$7 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,275 $1,274 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $977 $994 +$17 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Eala 62¢ 64¢ $879 $900 +$21 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 74¢ $925 $808 −$116 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $713 $783 +$70 (+10%)
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 80¢ $664 $737 +$73 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $719 $715 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 83¢ 99¢ $584 $694 +$110 (+19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $685 $683 −$2 (-0%)
Will Petr Yan fight Henry Cejudo next? No 100¢ 100¢ $672 $675 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 89¢ 92¢ $621 $648 +$27 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $593 $598 +$6 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $549 $575 +$27 (+5%)
Will Conor McGregor fight Charles Oliveira next? No 93¢ 90¢ $567 $544 −$23 (-4%)
Alix Earle and Tom Brady confirmed relationship by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $482 $499 +$16 (+3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 84¢ 99¢ $420 $495 +$75 (+18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $494 $493 −$1 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? No 53¢ 99¢ $255 $478 +$223 (+87%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $395 $398 +$3 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $390 $398 +$8 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $394 $391 −$3 (-1%)
Will Lerone Murphy fight Alexander Volkanovski next? No 98¢ 99¢ $355 $360 +$5 (+1%)
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 41¢ $560 $328 −$232 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $231 −$231 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $490 −$490 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $826 −$826 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $281 +$46 +16%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $269 −$269 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $258 +$250 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $316 +$84 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $170 −$170 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $37 +$54 +146%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $70 +$174 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $156 −$156 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Set Handicap: Rincon (-1.5) vs Blanch (+1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $216 −$216 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $601 −$601 -100%
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $187 +$17 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $487 +$1,584 +325%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 11 $135 −$135 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 10 $96 −$96 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $128 −$128 -100%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $90 +$110 +122%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 10 $66 −$66 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $208 −$208 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 10 $260 −$260 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 10 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 10 $128 −$128 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $265 +$235 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $130 −$130 -100%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $82 −$82 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $134 +$66 +49%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $113 +$90 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $167 −$167 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $266 −$266 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $448 +$252 +56%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $96 +$4 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $659 +$41 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 62¢ $572 39m
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 39m
Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Sonmez (+1.5) BUY Sonmez 62¢ $3 41m
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 67¢ $9 42m
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) BUY Rinderknech 30¢ $3 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-2.5) AND Will Spain win o BUY 51¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 62¢ $63 1h
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) BUY Moutet 62¢ $140 1h
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 62¢ $254 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 34¢ $18 1h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5) BUY Cilic 66¢ $15 1h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Cobolli 66¢ $66 5h
Will Petr Yan fight Dominick Cruz next? BUY No 100¢ $20 9h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Cobolli 66¢ $3 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 78¢ $106 11h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY No 63¢ $7 12h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY No 63¢ $227 12h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY No 63¢ $2 12h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY No 63¢ $25 12h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY No 64¢ $8 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $64 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $86 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $19 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $4 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $20 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $12 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $2 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $2 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $37 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,754.12 · official $25,834.99 (match) · 3500 history records