Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6B 0x6b3a…14aa world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$3
politics 7% $0
other 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.0%
all 24 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage470d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $97 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $48 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $43 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $43 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $18 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $17 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $46 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $46 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $42 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records