Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b3a…18d8 crypto 859 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$288 (+3%) realized +$289 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%423W / 435L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$38
14 days−$67
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$149
sports 40% +$130
other 7% −$81
weather 1% +$21
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -45.1% -50.3% 15% 15% -29.3%
≤30d 101 +5.8% -4.3% 27% 27% -24.5%
≤90d 385 +0.2% -9.4% 45% 40% -12.0%
all 858 -3.7% -12.9% 49% 42% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 42% -7.6%
10% -21.2% 34% -16.4%
15% -28.9% 29% -24.5%
20% -35.8% 23% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$289
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses423 / 435
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)858 / 859
History coverage235d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 858 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $18 +$14 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -12%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 +$13 +126%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $10 +$28 +276%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $10 −$2 -18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $10 −$4 -39%
Lyon: Hugo Grenier vs Luca Van Assche Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $4 +$7 +180%
Cattolica: Pierluigi Basile vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $6 +$2 +32%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $6 +$12 +190%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Philip Henning Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Centurion 2: Alec Beckley vs Tuncay Duran Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $8 −$1 -11%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Heilbronn: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Pedro Martinez Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $8 −$4 -53%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Kayla Day May 31 $4 +$7 +167%
ITF Bol: Noa Vukadin vs Duje Ajdukovic May 31 $10 +$10 +102%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $4 +$9 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 16¢ $11 13h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 21h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 22h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 23h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 11¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 95¢ $32 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 69¢ $8 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 44¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 99¢ $23 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 43¢ $10 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 36¢ $10 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 26¢ $10 4d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw SELL Felix Balshaw 24¢ $8 4d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 28¢ $10 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 0¢ $0 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 23¢ $10 5d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady BUY Liam Broady 12¢ $4 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 7¢ $6 5d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 6¢ $3 6d
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 16¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.69 · official $1.69 (match) · 2204 history records