trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 40% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +90.9% | +72.7% | 45% | 9% | -8.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +82.6% | +65.2% | 42% | 8% | -8.8% |
| all | 28 | +34.2% | +21.4% | 46% | 4% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +21.4% | 4% | -9.1% |
| 10% | +9.8% | 4% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -0.8% | 4% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -10.5% | 4% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 57¢ | 56¢ | $62 | $60 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 20 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jun 19 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $55 | −$1 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $6 | $0 | -3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 27 | $16 | +$3 | +22% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $123 | +$2 | +2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $93 | +$4 | +4% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $60 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 23 | $3 | $0 | -15% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 21 | $38 | −$4 | -9% |
| Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 23 | $26 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Dec 19 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | Nov 20 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Nov 20 | $5 | −$2 | -40% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Nov 19 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? | Nov 14 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump be impeached in 2025? | Oct 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Oct 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 20 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in | Oct 14 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Oct 01 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | Oct 01 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no | Oct 01 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? | Sep 28 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Sep 27 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Sep 27 | $23 | $0 | +0% |